Africa’s Rail Moonshot

Plans have emerged that outline one of the boldest infrastructure ideas in modern history.

And, yes, it’s in Africa, by Africans.

Proposed is a transcontinental freight railway that could eventually link 40 different Sub-Saharan African countries, creating a thoroughfare for energy, industry, and trade on a single rail network.

This loud vision has been quietly in the works for a while, and if executed successfully, could transform the future of trade and commerce across the continent.

It sounds improbable and almost irrational, given the history of big, well-intended projects that have spawned from the African ecosystem that never came to life, and the fact that this project will involve thousands of miles of rail track cutting through dozens of borders, which will cost hundreds of billions in capital.

But, if this project is executed properly, it has the chance to fundamentally redefine the way commerce and trade function across the continent.

Gas‑by‑Rail Economic Corridor

The project has been dubbed the gas-by-rail economic corridor and is a collaboration between Nigeria and Ethiopia (the host country).

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between the Nigerian consultant group, Insight Dynamic Resources, and the ALG consulting group to implement the $400 billion initiative.

The Brass Tacks - The freight rail lines would cut through the continent, spanning more than 73,500 km, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, and would carry liquefied natural gas (LNG) and bulk cargo, with plans to move cleaner fuels in the future. Along the rail corridors, industrial zones and logistics hubs would sprout up, taking advantage of cheaper energy and faster transport.

This is not a single rail line, but a large network, and it will not belong to one nation, but a cross-border system by design, a unifying project that can fix the problem of unreliable power and inefficient logistics.

Sounds straightforward, right? What could go wrong?

Remember, we are in Africa.

Africa’s Real Problem Is Not Vision. It’s Logistics.

Let’s face it, Africa has no shortage of ideas and big thinkers, but execution is where things break down. How many times have we seen detailed renderings of new developments or “smart cities” that get our emotions swirling? And “The Dubai of Africa” slogan seems to be thrown around for every major urban renewal project, but many of these renderings fall into the dustbin, and the grand ideas evaporate into the abyss.

Anyone familiar with African countries will understand that one of the biggest pain points is poor road networks and infrastructure. The opportunity cost of bad roads and poor logistics is staggering.

• Africa loses 2-5% of GDP every year due to poor transport infrastructure (this amounts to $64 - $160 billion in lost economic value).

• Transport costs in Africa are two to three times higher than global averages.

• Truck delays on bad roads cost Africa over $4 billion a year.

For many African nations, it is cheaper to import goods from abroad than to move them intra-continentally. Trucks and lorries are the workhorses of cargo movement, but they are often crippled by impassable roads and volatile fuel prices.

Pipelines are a traditional option for moving fuel across land, but they are expensive, prone to vandalism, politically risky, and hard to scale across multiple countries.

Rail changes this equation.

Freight rail is more efficient and cheaper over long distances, and it is better equipped for bulk cargo items. Another big plus is that it is more predictable. No more waiting on “African Time,” so businesses can plan around scheduled deliveries and stops.

This project could solidify the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area), which has visions of a single African market for goods and services that could connect 1.3 billion people. With no infrastructure tying this agreement together, the AfCFTA trade integration remains mostly theoretical.

America’s Rail Moment

When the idea of the African transcontinental rail project is brought up, inevitably, the American transcontinental rail comes up too. Understandably so, since it left an indelible mark on the country’s development and transformation, much of which can still be seen and measured today.

In the late 1800’s, with the advent of the steam locomotive, the great rail expansion in America connected the coasts, collapsed distances, and allowed for manufacturing sectors to spring up and boom.

The coal, iron, and steel industries saw massive growth in this era, as well as lumber, mining, and agriculture.

Some of America’s most iconic cities, like Atlanta, Chicago, and Omaha, were founded or experienced explosive growth along these corridors. So it is easy to see why we would compare these two networks and think that this same evolution could take place in Africa.

The comparison only goes so far, though.

The United States built its rail network under one federal government, one currency, and one legal system. In Africa, this play is across several sovereign states with their own legal systems, currencies, political theatre, regulations, and border controls. Something of this scale has really never been attempted, so there is not much precedent to follow.

The American transcontinental rail took a couple of decades or so to complete (much of it built with the hands of enslaved Africans and Chinese labourers), and it fundamentally changed the flow of commerce. But in Africa, for this same success to occur, it will take much greater coordination, patience, and strong leadership.

It won’t be easy, but game-changing, life-improving endeavors never are.

Unique African Challenges

The rational person will view this project with a heap of skepticism if they have ever done business in Africa. I mean, it’s hard enough to even travel between countries as an African citizen without a mess of “wahala” and red tape. So now we are expected to believe that a cross-continent railway system will operate smoothly (literally and figuratively)?

There will inevitably be land and environmental issues, displacement of indigenous peoples, border bureaucracy, military conflicts, and the Achilles heel of African infrastructure - maintenance. Who will take ownership and responsibility, and when the big bills come due, who will actually fork over the cash to pay for it?

The other obvious concern is about the future. Is LGN the answer? Isn’t rail an antiquated way of transporting cargo? Is there a better way? In 50 years, we may look back at this solution, scratching our heads, thinking, why did we waste so much time and money on a solution that sits ‘within the box ‘?

But at least there is a plan on the table, and people are willing to commit to making it happen.

What Happens if it Works?

The upside of this proposed project is hard to ignore.

Africans are optimists. They have to be. The harsh realities on the continent are plentiful enough to make anyone waive the white flag or throw in the towel. But Africans persist. Is it because they know what’s coming, the promise of a better future? Or is it simply a survival coping mechanism?

Either way, African optimism will be the fuel needed to get this project off the ground and to keep it chugging forward, along with a little favor from God.

Imagine an Africa where fuel, goods, and people flow freely across borders from Lagos to Kinshasa, Kampala to Addis Ababa, creating an economic web that spurs development, intracontinental cooperation, and harmony that could shift economies from exporting raw commodities to local manufacturing, processing, and local consumption.

Imagine the new and improved cities that could be born along these corridors, where energy is abundant, goods and services are cheaper, and the quality of life is greatly improved. And maybe more importantly, the free trade ambitions would actually come to life, with the railways serving as the connecting force that would make this mission possible.

This vision and plan need the continent to go “all in,” and in time, we all may get to rake in the rewards from a much-needed bet.