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Shake the Tree
Good Morning, Chop Family!
Happy Friday Eve!
Strap in for the latest from the continent and around the globe.
📈 AROUND THE GLOBE
Protests in Iran have raged on for the last several days, and thousands of Iranians have been killed in the streets. The latest reports claim that over 2500 people have been killed.
Rhetoric from Washington, D.C. has escalated, and the Donald has made veiled threats towards the Iranian regime. Will he strike? Will he unseat the ruling party?
High stakes for sure, so stay tuned.
MARKET MOVES
BUSINESS
Cocoa’s Rollercoaster Finally Hits the Brakes
Cocoa prices dropped over 12% in mid-January to $5,224 per metric ton, a seven-week low, as improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana boosts supply. Traders who rode December’s rally are now cashing out.
The wild ride: Cocoa hit a record $12,000 per ton in December 2024 after years of supply chaos from droughts and disease. Then it crashed 48% through 2025 as rainfall improved. Current prices are still double the pre-crisis $2,000-$3,000 range, but weak European demand and favorable weather could keep them bearish through Q1.
Big lens: Lower prices help chocolate makers but hurt Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce 60% of global cocoa. For two economies that lean heavily on cocoa exports, this volatility stings, even if structural issues like aging trees mean prices won’t return to historic lows anytime soon.
Speaking of commodities and trade flows, Nigeria just made a move that could reshape how African goods move globally...
Nigeria and UAE Just Scrapped Tariffs on 13,000+ Products
Nigeria and the UAE signed a major trade deal on January 13 that eliminates tariffs on thousands of products. The UAE will scrap tariffs on over 7,000 Nigerian products like fish, cotton, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals immediately, with machinery and vehicles following over the next five years.
Nigeria removes tariffs on 6,243 UAE products, with 63% gone immediately, mostly industrial inputs and capital goods. Nigerian businesses can now set up in the UAE, and executives can relocate for renewable three-year stints.
Big lens: This positions Nigeria as a gateway to Africa’s 1.4 billion-person market while giving manufacturers direct access to one of the world’s busiest trade hubs. It’s about scaling value-added exports, not just shipping out raw materials. Strategy over hope, finally.
FINANCE
Gold and Silver Just Went Absolutely Vertical
Gold blew past $4,630 while silver jumped 5.3% to top $90 an ounce for the first time ever. Copper and tin also hit all-time highs as investors bet on more US rate cuts and dump government bonds over debt concerns. Gold soared over 60% last year, while silver jumped nearly 150%, their best annual performance since 1979.
China’s speculative frenzy is turbocharging everything, with trading volumes hitting records. Supply issues are making it worse: copper disruptions, capped aluminum output, and Indonesia curbing tin exports.
For Africa: Countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Tanzania, sitting on gold reserves, are finally launching refining plants instead of just shipping raw ore overseas. With the World Gold Council projecting gold could surge another 15 to 30% in 2026, the timing to move up the value chain has never been better.
And speaking of gold bets, one company in Zimbabwe is putting serious money where the market momentum is.
Zimbabwe’s Biggest Gold Mine Is Getting Built
Caledonia Mining is dropping $132 million in 2026 to develop the Bilboes mine, which will be Zimbabwe’s largest gold mine once operational.
Total project cost is $584 million, and production is expected to start in late 2028, hitting 200,000 ounces annually from 2029. That’s more than double the output of their current Blanket mine.
The timing is clutch. Zimbabwe’s government reversed plans to double the gold royalty rate last month, clearing a major obstacle. With gold at record highs, this is a long-term bet that Zimbabwe can reclaim its spot as a top African gold producer.
TECH
Nigeria’s About to Write the Playbook on AI Regulation in Africa
Nigeria is set to pass the National Digital Economy and E-Governance Bill by March, making it one of the first African countries with actual, enforceable AI rules. High-stakes AI in finance, government, or surveillance gets mandatory annual audits. Developers need licenses, and violations can cost ₦10 million or 2% of revenue.
The smart part? The bill includes safe zones for startups to experiment without getting crushed. NITDA’s boss said it best- “regulation isn’t about commands, it’s about shaping behavior so people build AI for good.”
Big lens: Egypt, Benin, and Mauritius have AI strategies on paper but no binding laws. Nigeria pulling this off first sets the continental precedent for governing AI while hoping to keep innovation alive.
SMALL CHOP
AFCON 2025 Semifinals - January 14, 2026
Senegal 1-0 Egypt
Sadio Mane struck late to send Senegal through with a 1-0 victory over Egypt. Repeat of the 2021 final, but this time decided in regular time.
Morocco 0-0 Nigeria (Morocco win 4-2 on penalties)
Morocco advanced after beating Nigeria 4-2 on penalties following a goalless 120 minutes. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou was the hero in the shootout.
[FINAL: Morocco vs Senegal]
DISH OF THE DAY
West African Hot Chocolate is a delightful drink that hits much differently than the Western variety. It is made with local cocoa, which is heated up, and in some cases, coconut milk is added along with spices like vanilla, honey, and cinnamon. It is less sweet than the typical hot cocoa, but has deep flavours that warm up your soul!
Did You Know? Cocoa is naturally mood-boosting. It contains compounds linked to serotonin and endorphins, science backing why chocolate feels like therapy.
Till next time,
Chop Team